Model comparison for impact analysis of policy instruments
In order to strengthen support for research and development work in energy system analysis, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) is founding six different model experiments (MODEX) on current system analytical topics. Within the framework of the MODEX network, the aim will be to methodically compare the increasingly complex models of the energy system analysis. At the same time, the scientific exchange between the developers will be intensified in order to further improve the quality of the models.
Energy system and electricity market models are frequently used for the analysis of target scenarios, development paths and technology options of the German (and European) energy system. In addition, these models are also used to assess impacts of policy instruments within studies for various public institutions. Energy companies make use of such models as well to evaluate political measures, e.g. in case of investment decisions in renewable energy sources.
In our opinion, the analyses are important in the context of scientific policy advice and especially here, because of the political implications, quality assurance and validation of model results is essential. Therefore, we plan to conduct a model experiment in order to compare the results of different models with regard to the effects of selected policy instruments. The focus here is expected to be on effectiveness in the short to medium term, since in practice policy instruments are often assessed on this basis and turning points such as the completion of the phase-out of nuclear energy by 2023 allow for relevant investigation scenarios. The exchange between the participating research groups is intended to serve the purpose of jointly developing an improved understanding of key interrelations and interdependencies and to develop a best practice for impact analysis.
Objects of the Project
Within this the framework of this project, three model experiments with varying thematic focus will be carried out to achieve a better understanding of relevant interdependencies between model specifications and outcomes in the impact analysis of policy instruments. The objective of this project is explicitly not to provide policy advice, but the improvement of model quality and validity for future requirements of policy support. The orientation of the model experiments follows current political questions in the context of achieving climate targets (e.g. strategies for a national coal phase-out or CO2 pricing) and evaluating support mechanisms (e.g. for combined heat and power generation).
Dr. Michael Bucksteeg; Arne Pöstges, M. Sc.
Lehrstuhl für Energiewirtschaft der Universität Duisburg-Essen
Prof. Dr. Christoph Weber
Dr. Michael Bucksteeg
ewi Energy Research & Scenarios gGmbH
Dr. Eglantine Künle
Fraunhofer-Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Energiesystemtechnik IEE
Dr. Diana Böttger
Hertie School of Governance Gemeinnützige GmbH
Prof. Dr. Lion Hirth
Dr. Markus Haller
Dr. Matthias Koch