Type of Publication: Article in Journal

The impact of electric vehicles on the future European electricity system – A scenario analysis

Blumberg, Gerald; Broll, Roland; Weber, Christoph
Title of Journal:
Energy Policy
Volume (Publication Date):
2021 (2022)
Electric vehicles; Smart charging; Vehicle-2-grid; Investment model; Scenario analysis; Policy implications
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):
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The future transformation of the European electricity system will be strongly influenced by both an ongoing
integration of variable renewable energy sources (VREs) and an increased proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs).
This combination will cause considerable uncertainty, especially since EV diffusion may greatly vary regarding
both the spatio-temporal penetration pattern and the achievable flexibility level. Notably, power plant investment
in the long run and dispatch in the short run will be affected. Hence, this paper assesses the impact of EV
penetration on the integration of VREs and the costs of CO2 emission reduction as well as the necessary investments
in controllable plant capacities under the consideration of frequency reserve and backup capacity
requirements. Applying an extended European energy system model, we found that EVs with a high flexibility
level may contribute tremendously to improved VRE integration, alleviating the number of necessary VRE investments
to achieve emission-reduction goals. Simultaneously, overall system costs are reduced even though
necessary investments in controllable plants, ensuring the abovementioned system stability needs, significantly
increase. Policy makers should hence ensure sufficient incentives to both exploit the EVs’ potential and safeguard
corresponding investments in controllable plants, which need to remain attractive even though full-load hours
are decreasing.